Groucho Marxism

Two days ago, president Nicolas Maduro was kidnapped by US forces during a military strike on Venezuela, in a major international development. In a previous blog post I said that the US is clearly is aiming at regime change in Venezuela, and this has been now been proven correct. Not that I am claiming any particular prescience or insight; it has been obvious for some time now that the US was aiming for regime change. The timing is interesting though, as just the day before the attack Maduro had said that he was ready to make a deal with Trump. You’d think that Trump, with his love for making deals, would have jumped at the opportunity! It’s almost as though the US wanted to act before the international community realized that a deal was on the cards.

In kidnapping Maduro the US has once again exposed itself as an imperialist power that just does whatever it wants, whenever it wants. So much for the rules-based international order! The question now is what happens next. The US probably plans to install the neoliberal Zionist Maria Corina Machado as president – assuming they have planned that far ahead. Recent experience of similar US aggression suggests they haven’t thought beyond the initial attack. It seems unlikely that the US will stop at removing Maduro though. Trump has already said that Colombia will be next in the firing line; like many people I had assumed that was an idle threat, but now I’m not so sure. Or perhaps Cuba will be next, as the US has wanted regime change there for even longer than they’ve wanted it in Venezuela.

As expected, all the usual imperialist fascism apologists have been wheeled out by the BBC and other mainstream media outlets to give their support to the US’s actions. Elsewhere, many liberals have been expressing their amazement at these events, as if nothing like this has ever happened before. Some people really do have short memories! On the left, meanwhile, there has been widespread condemnation of this aggression, demonstrating once again that we are the only people with our heads screwed on when it comes to these matters. However, there is a difference of opinion on the left when it comes to Maduro and his regime. My view is that Maduro should be condemned as a corrupt dictator, but I have seen a lot of leftists defending him over the past couple of days.

The argument being made in favour of Maduro seems to be that a socialist leader in a country like Venezuela needs to be authoritarian to effectively stand up to US imperialism. Of course, that hasn’t really worked for Maduro in the long run as he has now been ousted, but he did manage to stave off the threat of US invasion for 13 years. Moreover, there is historical evidence that can be adduced in favour of this argument. The Bolsheviks, who led arguably the most successful socialist revolution ever, were famously authoritarian. On the other hand, the reason Salvador Allende’s socialist revolution failed in Chile was that he and his administration didn’t take a hard enough line on reactionary tendencies, particularly in the military, which allowed the US to sponsor a successful right-wing coup.

In the end, though, the question of whether Maduro and his regime should be praised or criticized is beside the point. Extraordinary rendition bypasses due process and treats sovereign nations as ‘lesser-than’. This is true regardless of whether or not the abductee is considered a dictator. If it is treated as acceptable then we could see similar coups happening elsewhere; in fact this seems quite likely, as noted above. In any case, the idea that the US was motivated to remove Maduro because he is a dictator is laughable. As if Trump and his cronies care about the well-being of the Venezuelan people! This raises the question of why the US has done this, to which the obvious answer is: oil. As I noted in my previous blog post, Venezuela has more oil reserves than any other country in the world.

However, there are reasons to think that this is not just about oil. First, it will take a lot of investment just to get Venezuelan oil production back to pre-sanction levels. Second, Venezuelan oil is dense and viscous and requires specialized processing. Third, the US is already present in the Venezuelan supply chain via Chevron. And fourth, Venezuelan oil will not plug any immediate demand and is unlikely to significantly reduce prices. So if it’s not just about oil, what else is it about? I think it is meant as a message to the rest of the world. It is a dry run for a new type of low-cost, low-risk, and lighter footprint regime change mission. You could even go so far as to argue that oil is being used as a smokescreen, to make it seem as though this invasion was done for the benefit of the US people.

The message is obvious: stand up to us and you will be removed. It is meant for the leaders of Colombia, Cuba, and other country that has attempted to break free from the yoke of imperialism. Difficult as it is to predict how this will play out, one thing is clear – there are turbulent times ahead.